NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CONN ECU
Points 82.9 54.8
Total Points   137.7
Points From 2-Pointers 39.2 28.2
Points From 3-Pointers 28.8 14.0
Points From Free Throws 14.9 12.6
Shooting CONN ECU
Field Goals Made 29.2 18.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 57.1
Field Goal % 51.6% 32.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 14.1
2 Pointers Attempted 29.7 39.7
2 Point Shooting % 65.9% 35.5%
3 Pointers Made 9.6 4.7
3 Pointers Attempted 26.8 17.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 26.9%
Free Throws Made 14.9 12.6
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 18.3
Free Throw % 75.1% 68.6%
Ball Control CONN ECU
Rebounds 42.8 28.1
Rebounds - Defensive 31.0 18.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 9.8
Turnovers 8.9 8.7
Blocked Shots 5.6 2.2
Steals 4.9 5.6
Fouls 13.5 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CONN ECU
Total Possessions 66.3
Effective Scoring Chances 69.2 67.3
% of Possessions with CONN ECU
2 Point Attempt 37.7% 50.7%
3 Point Attempt 34.0% 22.2%
Player Fouled 21.4% 20.4%
Turnover 13.5% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken CONN ECU
Shot Blocked 3.9% 10.1%
Offensive Rebound 39.2% 23.9%