NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CONN MSU
Points 72.7 60.2
Total Points   132.9
Points From 2-Pointers 33.5 33.1
Points From 3-Pointers 25.8 14.7
Points From Free Throws 13.5 12.3
Shooting CONN MSU
Field Goals Made 25.3 21.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 58.5
Field Goal % 45.2% 36.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 30.7 43.0
2 Point Shooting % 54.5% 38.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 4.9
3 Pointers Attempted 25.3 15.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 31.6%
Free Throws Made 13.5 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 17.0
Free Throw % 75.1% 72.5%
Ball Control CONN MSU
Rebounds 39.2 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 29.0 22.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 10.0
Turnovers 9.3 8.1
Blocked Shots 5.1 3.1
Steals 4.4 5.3
Fouls 14.4 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CONN MSU
Total Possessions 66.2
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 68.1
% of Possessions with CONN MSU
2 Point Attempt 39.6% 55.0%
3 Point Attempt 32.6% 19.9%
Player Fouled 21.6% 21.7%
Turnover 14.0% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken CONN MSU
Shot Blocked 5.5% 9.2%
Offensive Rebound 30.7% 25.6%