NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HCU ASU
Points 62.8 87.6
Total Points   150.4
Points From 2-Pointers 34.3 53.1
Points From 3-Pointers 15.0 21.0
Points From Free Throws 13.5 13.4
Shooting HCU ASU
Field Goals Made 22.1 33.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.1 63.7
Field Goal % 38.7% 52.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 26.6
2 Pointers Attempted 40.3 42.1
2 Point Shooting % 42.5% 63.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 16.8 21.6
3 Point Shooting % 29.8% 32.5%
Free Throws Made 13.5 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.1 20.6
Free Throw % 64.1% 65.3%
Ball Control HCU ASU
Rebounds 35.1 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 29.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 9.0
Turnovers 15.1 7.6
Blocked Shots 1.2 6.3
Steals 4.2 9.9
Fouls 13.8 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Arizona St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HCU ASU
Total Possessions 75.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.6 76.4
% of Possessions with HCU ASU
2 Point Attempt 46.2% 49.9%
3 Point Attempt 19.3% 25.5%
Player Fouled 19.6% 18.4%
Turnover 20.1% 10.2%
Opponent Steal 13.1% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken HCU ASU
Shot Blocked 9.9% 2.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.0% 26.2%