NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HCU MIZZ
Points 65.3 91.0
Total Points   156.2
Points From 2-Pointers 32.9 53.4
Points From 3-Pointers 15.3 22.5
Points From Free Throws 17.1 15.1
Shooting HCU MIZZ
Field Goals Made 21.6 34.2
Field Goals Attempted 55.4 62.5
Field Goal % 38.9% 54.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 26.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.0 40.4
2 Point Shooting % 42.2% 66.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 16.4 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 17.1 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 26.6 19.1
Free Throw % 64.1% 78.9%
Ball Control HCU MIZZ
Rebounds 33.2 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 21.0 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 9.7
Turnovers 14.2 8.5
Blocked Shots 1.5 7.4
Steals 4.5 9.0
Fouls 14.1 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Missouri

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HCU MIZZ
Total Possessions 73.3
Effective Scoring Chances 71.2 74.5
% of Possessions with HCU MIZZ
2 Point Attempt 44.1% 48.4%
3 Point Attempt 18.5% 26.4%
Player Fouled 23.5% 19.3%
Turnover 19.4% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 12.3% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken HCU MIZZ
Shot Blocked 12.0% 2.8%
Offensive Rebound 31.4% 31.5%