NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CONN VILL
Points 74.5 60.2
Total Points   134.7
Points From 2-Pointers 33.8 25.9
Points From 3-Pointers 29.1 21.3
Points From Free Throws 11.6 13.0
Shooting CONN VILL
Field Goals Made 26.6 20.1
Field Goals Attempted 57.6 55.7
Field Goal % 46.2% 36.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 13.0
2 Pointers Attempted 29.5 32.0
2 Point Shooting % 57.4% 40.5%
3 Pointers Made 9.7 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 28.1 23.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 29.9%
Free Throws Made 11.6 13.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.5 16.3
Free Throw % 74.9% 79.7%
Ball Control CONN VILL
Rebounds 38.8 30.9
Rebounds - Defensive 29.8 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 6.8
Turnovers 7.8 8.4
Blocked Shots 5.8 2.0
Steals 5.1 4.4
Fouls 13.0 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Villanova

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CONN VILL
Total Possessions 65.9
Effective Scoring Chances 67.1 64.3
% of Possessions with CONN VILL
2 Point Attempt 38.9% 42.6%
3 Point Attempt 37.1% 31.6%
Player Fouled 21.0% 19.8%
Turnover 11.9% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken CONN VILL
Shot Blocked 3.7% 10.2%
Offensive Rebound 27.4% 18.7%