NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AMCC IW
Points 70.8 68.6
Total Points   139.4
Points From 2-Pointers 43.1 34.7
Points From 3-Pointers 13.7 21.0
Points From Free Throws 14.0 12.9
Shooting AMCC IW
Field Goals Made 26.1 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 53.4 55.6
Field Goal % 48.9% 43.8%
2 Pointers Made 21.6 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 40.9 36.7
2 Point Shooting % 52.7% 47.2%
3 Pointers Made 4.6 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 12.6 18.8
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 14.0 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 22.1 18.9
Free Throw % 63.4% 68.2%
Ball Control AMCC IW
Rebounds 33.2 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 22.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 10.9
Turnovers 9.9 10.3
Blocked Shots 3.7 4.8
Steals 6.0 6.2
Fouls 14.4 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Incarnate Word

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AMCC IW
Total Possessions 66.6
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 67.2
% of Possessions with AMCC IW
2 Point Attempt 52.3% 46.5%
3 Point Attempt 16.0% 23.8%
Player Fouled 22.5% 21.7%
Turnover 14.9% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken AMCC IW
Shot Blocked 8.8% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 30.7% 31.8%