NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AMCC NORL
Points 78.0 68.0
Total Points   146.0
Points From 2-Pointers 44.5 35.3
Points From 3-Pointers 14.4 12.3
Points From Free Throws 19.0 20.4
Shooting AMCC NORL
Field Goals Made 27.1 21.8
Field Goals Attempted 60.6 52.5
Field Goal % 44.7% 41.4%
2 Pointers Made 22.3 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 45.6 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 47.1%
3 Pointers Made 4.8 4.1
3 Pointers Attempted 14.9 15.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 27.3%
Free Throws Made 19.0 20.4
Free Throws Attempted 26.6 28.9
Free Throw % 71.6% 70.6%
Ball Control AMCC NORL
Rebounds 41.7 31.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 23.4
Rebounds - Offensive 14.2 8.1
Turnovers 11.4 12.5
Blocked Shots 3.4 4.2
Steals 7.1 6.2
Fouls 21.8 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: New Orleans

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AMCC NORL
Total Possessions 74.3
Effective Scoring Chances 77.1 70.0
% of Possessions with AMCC NORL
2 Point Attempt 50.6% 44.8%
3 Point Attempt 16.5% 17.9%
Player Fouled 23.8% 29.3%
Turnover 15.3% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken AMCC NORL
Shot Blocked 8.1% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 37.8% 22.9%