NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SDST NDSU
Points 80.6 71.4
Total Points   152.0
Points From 2-Pointers 45.3 32.0
Points From 3-Pointers 23.6 28.8
Points From Free Throws 11.7 10.6
Shooting SDST NDSU
Field Goals Made 30.5 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 56.2
Field Goal % 53.8% 45.6%
2 Pointers Made 22.7 16.0
2 Pointers Attempted 37.2 31.2
2 Point Shooting % 60.9% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 9.6
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 24.9
3 Point Shooting % 40.2% 38.4%
Free Throws Made 11.7 10.6
Free Throws Attempted 16.0 14.3
Free Throw % 73.3% 74.1%
Ball Control SDST NDSU
Rebounds 31.7 29.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 22.8
Rebounds - Offensive 6.0 6.6
Turnovers 8.3 10.9
Blocked Shots 3.4 1.3
Steals 5.3 3.9
Fouls 12.8 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: N Dakota St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SDST NDSU
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.6 64.6
% of Possessions with SDST NDSU
2 Point Attempt 49.4% 40.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.0% 32.5%
Player Fouled 20.7% 18.6%
Turnover 12.0% 15.8%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken SDST NDSU
Shot Blocked 2.3% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 20.7% 20.3%