NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SDST SDAK
Points 85.6 73.0
Total Points   158.6
Points From 2-Pointers 43.5 32.2
Points From 3-Pointers 29.7 30.0
Points From Free Throws 12.4 10.8
Shooting SDST SDAK
Field Goals Made 31.7 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 61.7 58.4
Field Goal % 51.3% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 21.8 16.1
2 Pointers Attempted 36.5 33.1
2 Point Shooting % 59.6% 48.7%
3 Pointers Made 9.9 10.0
3 Pointers Attempted 25.2 25.3
3 Point Shooting % 39.3% 39.5%
Free Throws Made 12.4 10.8
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 14.1
Free Throw % 73.3% 76.4%
Ball Control SDST SDAK
Rebounds 34.5 32.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.6 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 7.3
Turnovers 7.0 11.6
Blocked Shots 3.2 1.3
Steals 6.0 3.3
Fouls 12.6 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: South Dakota

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SDST SDAK
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 72.1 66.9
% of Possessions with SDST SDAK
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 41.5%
3 Point Attempt 31.6% 31.8%
Player Fouled 21.2% 17.7%
Turnover 9.8% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 4.7% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken SDST SDAK
Shot Blocked 2.3% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.2% 21.5%