NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SDST SMC
Points 61.1 76.4
Total Points   137.5
Points From 2-Pointers 31.2 37.3
Points From 3-Pointers 17.7 29.2
Points From Free Throws 12.1 9.9
Shooting SDST SMC
Field Goals Made 21.5 28.4
Field Goals Attempted 51.9 59.5
Field Goal % 41.4% 47.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.6 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 34.8 33.6
2 Point Shooting % 44.7% 55.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 17.1 25.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.7% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 12.1 9.9
Free Throws Attempted 16.6 14.8
Free Throw % 73.3% 67.1%
Ball Control SDST SMC
Rebounds 26.9 39.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.4 27.9
Rebounds - Offensive 4.6 11.5
Turnovers 10.1 8.9
Blocked Shots 2.1 4.4
Steals 4.5 7.1
Fouls 12.1 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: S Dakota St

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SDST SMC
Total Possessions 66.5
Effective Scoring Chances 61.0 69.1
% of Possessions with SDST SMC
2 Point Attempt 47.8% 42.6%
3 Point Attempt 23.4% 32.9%
Player Fouled 23.9% 18.2%
Turnover 15.2% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 10.7% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken SDST SMC
Shot Blocked 7.4% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 14.1% 34.0%