NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SDST WIU
Points 71.6 64.9
Total Points   136.5
Points From 2-Pointers 39.3 33.3
Points From 3-Pointers 21.4 22.1
Points From Free Throws 10.9 9.5
Shooting SDST WIU
Field Goals Made 26.8 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 59.3
Field Goal % 44.7% 40.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.7 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.4 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 49.9% 44.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 10.9 9.5
Free Throws Attempted 14.8 15.2
Free Throw % 73.3% 62.4%
Ball Control SDST WIU
Rebounds 33.6 39.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 26.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 12.5
Turnovers 8.1 11.3
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.8
Steals 6.2 4.9
Fouls 12.1 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: W Illinois

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SDST WIU
Total Possessions 68.2
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 69.4
% of Possessions with SDST WIU
2 Point Attempt 50.5% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 26.5%
Player Fouled 20.0% 17.7%
Turnover 11.9% 16.6%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken SDST WIU
Shot Blocked 8.3% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 22.6% 32.7%