NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SDST CSU
Points 65.2 74.8
Total Points   140.0
Points From 2-Pointers 32.5 36.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.6 27.1
Points From Free Throws 12.1 11.7
Shooting SDST CSU
Field Goals Made 23.1 27.1
Field Goals Attempted 54.6 56.1
Field Goal % 42.4% 48.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 34.2 30.3
2 Point Shooting % 47.5% 59.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 25.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 12.1 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 16.5 15.6
Free Throw % 73.3% 74.7%
Ball Control SDST CSU
Rebounds 31.5 33.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 6.8
Turnovers 10.5 9.0
Blocked Shots 1.9 3.2
Steals 4.4 6.2
Fouls 13.8 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: S Dakota St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SDST CSU
Total Possessions 67.8
Effective Scoring Chances 64.4 65.6
% of Possessions with SDST CSU
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 40.2%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 34.2%
Player Fouled 22.7% 20.3%
Turnover 15.4% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken SDST CSU
Shot Blocked 5.8% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 20.9% 21.8%