NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SOU NMSU
Points 65.3 64.9
Total Points   130.2
Points From 2-Pointers 28.7 30.7
Points From 3-Pointers 21.1 17.7
Points From Free Throws 15.5 16.5
Shooting SOU NMSU
Field Goals Made 21.4 21.2
Field Goals Attempted 53.2 50.9
Field Goal % 40.2% 41.7%
2 Pointers Made 14.4 15.4
2 Pointers Attempted 31.2 31.6
2 Point Shooting % 46.0% 48.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 22.0 19.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.1% 30.4%
Free Throws Made 15.5 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 23.7 25.2
Free Throw % 65.3% 65.5%
Ball Control SOU NMSU
Rebounds 34.3 37.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 9.4
Turnovers 10.9 12.6
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.5
Steals 7.2 4.8
Fouls 17.5 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: N Mex State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SOU NMSU
Total Possessions 69.8
Effective Scoring Chances 67.8 66.6
% of Possessions with SOU NMSU
2 Point Attempt 39.2% 39.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.6% 24.1%
Player Fouled 25.3% 25.1%
Turnover 15.6% 18.0%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 10.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken SOU NMSU
Shot Blocked 4.9% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 24.4% 27.0%