NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USA UAB
Points 72.7 85.0
Total Points   157.7
Points From 2-Pointers 36.7 48.3
Points From 3-Pointers 24.0 16.9
Points From Free Throws 11.9 19.8
Shooting USA UAB
Field Goals Made 26.4 29.8
Field Goals Attempted 60.7 58.6
Field Goal % 43.4% 50.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 24.2
2 Pointers Attempted 39.0 40.8
2 Point Shooting % 47.1% 59.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 17.8
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 11.9 19.8
Free Throws Attempted 15.9 26.6
Free Throw % 74.7% 74.3%
Ball Control USA UAB
Rebounds 27.8 40.8
Rebounds - Defensive 21.1 29.2
Rebounds - Offensive 6.8 11.6
Turnovers 10.5 9.8
Blocked Shots 3.0 5.4
Steals 5.7 6.4
Fouls 16.5 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: UAB

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USA UAB
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 75.0
% of Possessions with USA UAB
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 47.5%
3 Point Attempt 26.5% 20.7%
Player Fouled 17.7% 22.6%
Turnover 14.4% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken USA UAB
Shot Blocked 9.3% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 18.9% 35.6%