NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SOU LOU
Points 65.9 72.3
Total Points   138.1
Points From 2-Pointers 33.0 34.3
Points From 3-Pointers 20.0 14.5
Points From Free Throws 12.9 23.5
Shooting SOU LOU
Field Goals Made 23.2 22.0
Field Goals Attempted 53.1 46.6
Field Goal % 43.6% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.5 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 33.1 31.3
2 Point Shooting % 49.9% 54.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 4.8
3 Pointers Attempted 20.0 15.3
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 31.6%
Free Throws Made 12.9 23.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.7 31.6
Free Throw % 65.3% 74.2%
Ball Control SOU LOU
Rebounds 28.1 35.1
Rebounds - Defensive 20.8 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 8.5
Turnovers 13.4 14.2
Blocked Shots 3.7 2.3
Steals 8.2 5.1
Fouls 21.5 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Louisville

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SOU LOU
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 65.5 65.9
% of Possessions with SOU LOU
2 Point Attempt 41.4% 38.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.1% 18.8%
Player Fouled 21.4% 30.1%
Turnover 18.8% 19.8%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 11.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken SOU LOU
Shot Blocked 5.1% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 21.6% 29.0%