NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SOU MVSU
Points 70.2 52.1
Total Points   122.3
Points From 2-Pointers 34.4 25.8
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 12.2
Points From Free Throws 14.9 14.2
Shooting SOU MVSU
Field Goals Made 24.1 16.9
Field Goals Attempted 51.3 45.6
Field Goal % 47.1% 37.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 12.9
2 Pointers Attempted 32.2 31.6
2 Point Shooting % 53.4% 40.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 4.1
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 14.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.4% 28.9%
Free Throws Made 14.9 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 21.6
Free Throw % 65.3% 66.0%
Ball Control SOU MVSU
Rebounds 34.4 30.2
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 22.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 8.0
Turnovers 12.2 17.3
Blocked Shots 3.8 1.9
Steals 9.0 5.7
Fouls 17.6 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Southern

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SOU MVSU
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 66.0 59.3
% of Possessions with SOU MVSU
2 Point Attempt 40.8% 40.4%
3 Point Attempt 24.1% 17.9%
Player Fouled 22.9% 25.7%
Turnover 17.8% 25.2%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 13.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SOU MVSU
Shot Blocked 4.2% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 30.2% 24.4%