NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SOU ARPB
Points 76.8 68.9
Total Points   145.7
Points From 2-Pointers 40.4 23.1
Points From 3-Pointers 22.9 25.7
Points From Free Throws 13.5 20.0
Shooting SOU ARPB
Field Goals Made 27.8 20.1
Field Goals Attempted 60.2 48.9
Field Goal % 46.3% 41.2%
2 Pointers Made 20.2 11.6
2 Pointers Attempted 35.4 24.3
2 Point Shooting % 57.1% 47.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 24.8 24.5
3 Point Shooting % 30.8% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 13.5 20.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 26.7
Free Throw % 65.3% 75.0%
Ball Control SOU ARPB
Rebounds 37.0 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 6.0
Turnovers 10.4 14.7
Blocked Shots 4.2 1.1
Steals 7.4 4.0
Fouls 19.4 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Southern

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SOU ARPB
Total Possessions 73.3
Effective Scoring Chances 73.6 64.6
% of Possessions with SOU ARPB
2 Point Attempt 41.9% 30.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.4% 30.3%
Player Fouled 21.3% 26.5%
Turnover 14.1% 20.0%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 10.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken SOU ARPB
Shot Blocked 2.3% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 29.1% 18.5%