NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SOU ALST
Points 65.9 61.8
Total Points   127.7
Points From 2-Pointers 28.6 27.5
Points From 3-Pointers 22.1 18.7
Points From Free Throws 15.2 15.6
Shooting SOU ALST
Field Goals Made 21.7 20.0
Field Goals Attempted 52.1 58.5
Field Goal % 41.6% 34.1%
2 Pointers Made 14.3 13.8
2 Pointers Attempted 29.7 35.5
2 Point Shooting % 48.3% 38.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.4 23.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.8% 27.0%
Free Throws Made 15.2 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 23.3 21.6
Free Throw % 65.3% 72.4%
Ball Control SOU ALST
Rebounds 38.8 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 30.0 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 11.4
Turnovers 14.2 11.6
Blocked Shots 5.0 3.9
Steals 5.9 6.7
Fouls 16.1 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama St

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SOU ALST
Total Possessions 71.8
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 71.5
% of Possessions with SOU ALST
2 Point Attempt 36.1% 41.7%
3 Point Attempt 27.3% 27.1%
Player Fouled 24.1% 22.4%
Turnover 19.8% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken SOU ALST
Shot Blocked 6.8% 9.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 27.5%