NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USA CHAT
Points 74.7 81.1
Total Points   155.8
Points From 2-Pointers 34.3 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 28.3 30.4
Points From Free Throws 12.1 13.9
Shooting USA CHAT
Field Goals Made 26.6 28.5
Field Goals Attempted 62.0 59.2
Field Goal % 42.8% 48.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 29.2
2 Point Shooting % 46.3% 62.9%
3 Pointers Made 9.4 10.1
3 Pointers Attempted 25.0 30.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.8% 33.7%
Free Throws Made 12.1 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 16.2 18.5
Free Throw % 74.7% 75.3%
Ball Control USA CHAT
Rebounds 30.8 39.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 30.5
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 9.4
Turnovers 8.2 11.0
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.7
Steals 6.3 5.3
Fouls 13.8 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: S Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USA CHAT
Total Possessions 72.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.2 70.8
% of Possessions with USA CHAT
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 35.3%
3 Point Attempt 30.9% 36.3%
Player Fouled 18.7% 19.0%
Turnover 11.3% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken USA CHAT
Shot Blocked 6.4% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 18.5% 28.4%