NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USA APP
Points 66.3 83.5
Total Points   149.8
Points From 2-Pointers 35.5 51.8
Points From 3-Pointers 21.3 18.6
Points From Free Throws 9.5 13.1
Shooting USA APP
Field Goals Made 24.8 32.1
Field Goals Attempted 65.9 62.8
Field Goal % 37.7% 51.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.7 25.9
2 Pointers Attempted 45.3 43.6
2 Point Shooting % 39.1% 59.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 20.6 19.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 32.4%
Free Throws Made 9.5 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 12.7 18.8
Free Throw % 74.7% 69.5%
Ball Control USA APP
Rebounds 31.0 44.7
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 34.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 10.3
Turnovers 9.2 9.5
Blocked Shots 2.0 7.3
Steals 6.0 5.5
Fouls 13.9 11.1

Playing Style Advantage: App State

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USA APP
Total Possessions 73.8
Effective Scoring Chances 71.9 74.6
% of Possessions with USA APP
2 Point Attempt 54.0% 51.4%
3 Point Attempt 24.6% 22.6%
Player Fouled 15.0% 18.8%
Turnover 12.5% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken USA APP
Shot Blocked 11.7% 3.1%
Offensive Rebound 17.4% 30.2%