NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USA FAU
Points 71.4 86.6
Total Points   158.0
Points From 2-Pointers 37.1 47.4
Points From 3-Pointers 23.6 21.4
Points From Free Throws 10.6 17.8
Shooting USA FAU
Field Goals Made 26.5 30.9
Field Goals Attempted 61.9 59.5
Field Goal % 42.7% 51.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 23.7
2 Pointers Attempted 40.2 36.9
2 Point Shooting % 46.2% 64.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 22.6
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 31.6%
Free Throws Made 10.6 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 14.2 24.4
Free Throw % 74.7% 72.6%
Ball Control USA FAU
Rebounds 28.6 41.2
Rebounds - Defensive 21.6 30.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 11.1
Turnovers 10.6 9.8
Blocked Shots 1.7 3.6
Steals 5.0 6.8
Fouls 16.4 12.7

Playing Style Advantage: S Alabama

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USA FAU
Total Possessions 73.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 75.0
% of Possessions with USA FAU
2 Point Attempt 48.9% 43.2%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 26.5%
Player Fouled 17.2% 22.3%
Turnover 14.3% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken USA FAU
Shot Blocked 6.1% 2.9%
Offensive Rebound 18.8% 33.8%