NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USA AUB
Points 61.3 91.1
Total Points   152.4
Points From 2-Pointers 28.0 49.4
Points From 3-Pointers 17.4 22.5
Points From Free Throws 15.9 19.1
Shooting USA AUB
Field Goals Made 19.8 32.2
Field Goals Attempted 58.5 59.4
Field Goal % 33.9% 54.3%
2 Pointers Made 14.0 24.7
2 Pointers Attempted 40.2 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 34.8% 65.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 18.3 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 15.9 19.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.3 25.5
Free Throw % 74.7% 74.8%
Ball Control USA AUB
Rebounds 27.6 43.8
Rebounds - Defensive 20.1 33.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 10.8
Turnovers 11.7 9.4
Blocked Shots 1.9 8.2
Steals 5.5 7.1
Fouls 17.0 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Auburn

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USA AUB
Total Possessions 73.8
Effective Scoring Chances 69.6 75.3
% of Possessions with USA AUB
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 44.1%
3 Point Attempt 21.6% 25.4%
Player Fouled 20.7% 23.1%
Turnover 15.9% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken USA AUB
Shot Blocked 13.9% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 18.5% 35.0%