NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USA TROY
Points 74.6 80.5
Total Points   155.1
Points From 2-Pointers 36.4 38.7
Points From 3-Pointers 23.1 23.2
Points From Free Throws 15.1 18.5
Shooting USA TROY
Field Goals Made 25.9 27.1
Field Goals Attempted 55.7 58.7
Field Goal % 46.5% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 35.6 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 51.1% 55.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 38.2% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 15.1 18.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 25.2
Free Throw % 74.7% 73.4%
Ball Control USA TROY
Rebounds 29.7 38.2
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 6.5 12.2
Turnovers 13.4 12.0
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.9
Steals 7.0 9.7
Fouls 15.9 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: S Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USA TROY
Total Possessions 74.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.7 74.8
% of Possessions with USA TROY
2 Point Attempt 43.0% 40.0%
3 Point Attempt 24.4% 26.8%
Player Fouled 21.4% 21.3%
Turnover 18.0% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 13.0% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken USA TROY
Shot Blocked 6.7% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 20.0% 34.4%