NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SOU UK
Points 62.6 89.0
Total Points   151.6
Points From 2-Pointers 29.0 40.8
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 26.6
Points From Free Throws 12.8 21.6
Shooting SOU UK
Field Goals Made 21.4 29.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.6 55.1
Field Goal % 36.0% 53.1%
2 Pointers Made 14.5 20.4
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 33.6
2 Point Shooting % 38.7% 60.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 8.9
3 Pointers Attempted 22.2 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.3% 41.3%
Free Throws Made 12.8 21.6
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 27.6
Free Throw % 65.3% 78.2%
Ball Control SOU UK
Rebounds 29.4 41.2
Rebounds - Defensive 20.5 32.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 8.7
Turnovers 13.2 12.0
Blocked Shots 3.1 5.9
Steals 6.6 6.5
Fouls 19.3 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SOU UK
Total Possessions 75.2
Effective Scoring Chances 70.9 71.8
% of Possessions with SOU UK
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 39.5%
3 Point Attempt 25.7% 25.2%
Player Fouled 19.8% 25.6%
Turnover 17.5% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken SOU UK
Shot Blocked 10.9% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 21.3% 29.7%