NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MAN SAM
Points 67.0 88.0
Total Points   155.0
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 42.9
Points From 3-Pointers 22.1 30.7
Points From Free Throws 11.5 14.4
Shooting MAN SAM
Field Goals Made 24.1 31.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.4 59.6
Field Goal % 41.2% 53.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 21.4
2 Pointers Attempted 34.4 35.9
2 Point Shooting % 48.6% 59.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 10.2
3 Pointers Attempted 24.0 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.6% 43.3%
Free Throws Made 11.5 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 15.8 20.4
Free Throw % 73.2% 70.7%
Ball Control MAN SAM
Rebounds 31.1 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 22.3 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 8.9
Turnovers 15.0 11.4
Blocked Shots 3.3 4.2
Steals 7.5 9.5
Fouls 15.0 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Samford

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MAN SAM
Total Possessions 74.5
Effective Scoring Chances 68.3 71.9
% of Possessions with MAN SAM
2 Point Attempt 40.5% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.3% 27.9%
Player Fouled 19.0% 20.2%
Turnover 20.1% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 12.7% 10.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MAN SAM
Shot Blocked 7.1% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 24.1% 28.4%