NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MAN PROV
Points 57.2 80.9
Total Points   138.1
Points From 2-Pointers 29.8 39.2
Points From 3-Pointers 19.1 27.2
Points From Free Throws 8.2 14.5
Shooting MAN PROV
Field Goals Made 21.3 28.7
Field Goals Attempted 60.0 57.0
Field Goal % 35.5% 50.3%
2 Pointers Made 14.9 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 39.3 32.5
2 Point Shooting % 38.0% 60.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 24.5
3 Point Shooting % 30.7% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 8.2 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 11.3 19.5
Free Throw % 73.2% 74.5%
Ball Control MAN PROV
Rebounds 29.5 41.3
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 32.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 9.0
Turnovers 12.0 10.7
Blocked Shots 2.3 5.0
Steals 6.9 7.2
Fouls 14.4 11.4

Playing Style Advantage: Providence

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MAN PROV
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.3 69.2
% of Possessions with MAN PROV
2 Point Attempt 48.9% 40.2%
3 Point Attempt 25.8% 30.4%
Player Fouled 16.1% 20.2%
Turnover 16.9% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 9.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MAN PROV
Shot Blocked 8.9% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 18.5% 28.9%