NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MAN FAIR
Points 67.8 79.3
Total Points   147.1
Points From 2-Pointers 37.3 38.7
Points From 3-Pointers 22.7 29.0
Points From Free Throws 7.8 11.6
Shooting MAN FAIR
Field Goals Made 26.2 29.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.6 61.0
Field Goal % 45.5% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 36.3
2 Point Shooting % 54.8% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 32.1% 39.1%
Free Throws Made 7.8 11.6
Free Throws Attempted 10.7 15.6
Free Throw % 73.2% 74.0%
Ball Control MAN FAIR
Rebounds 32.7 34.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 9.1
Turnovers 13.4 8.9
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.3
Steals 5.6 9.4
Fouls 11.6 10.6

Playing Style Advantage: Manhattan

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MAN FAIR
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 64.7 70.6
% of Possessions with MAN FAIR
2 Point Attempt 43.1% 45.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.9% 30.7%
Player Fouled 15.1% 16.4%
Turnover 19.0% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 13.3% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MAN FAIR
Shot Blocked 3.8% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 23.3% 26.5%