NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring KU BAY
Points 75.3 75.2
Total Points   150.5
Points From 2-Pointers 46.4 30.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.2 29.3
Points From Free Throws 12.7 15.8
Shooting KU BAY
Field Goals Made 28.6 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.4 57.1
Field Goal % 50.7% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 23.2 15.1
2 Pointers Attempted 40.1 32.4
2 Point Shooting % 57.8% 46.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 9.8
3 Pointers Attempted 16.3 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 39.5%
Free Throws Made 12.7 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 17.8 21.6
Free Throw % 71.4% 73.1%
Ball Control KU BAY
Rebounds 32.1 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 9.9
Turnovers 10.1 10.3
Blocked Shots 3.6 2.2
Steals 6.6 6.0
Fouls 14.9 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Baylor

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats KU BAY
Total Possessions 70.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.2 70.1
% of Possessions with KU BAY
2 Point Attempt 51.3% 39.5%
3 Point Attempt 20.8% 30.2%
Player Fouled 20.7% 21.1%
Turnover 14.3% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken KU BAY
Shot Blocked 4.0% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 21.6% 28.0%