NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring KU DUKE
Points 73.0 74.4
Total Points   147.4
Points From 2-Pointers 47.4 31.3
Points From 3-Pointers 14.2 29.1
Points From Free Throws 11.4 14.0
Shooting KU DUKE
Field Goals Made 28.4 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 59.4
Field Goal % 49.6% 42.7%
2 Pointers Made 23.7 15.7
2 Pointers Attempted 42.1 34.9
2 Point Shooting % 56.3% 44.8%
3 Pointers Made 4.7 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 15.2 24.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.1% 39.6%
Free Throws Made 11.4 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.0 19.6
Free Throw % 71.4% 71.6%
Ball Control KU DUKE
Rebounds 34.6 33.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.1 23.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 9.6
Turnovers 10.1 8.7
Blocked Shots 4.7 2.7
Steals 5.1 6.1
Fouls 12.7 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Kansas

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats KU DUKE
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 70.6
% of Possessions with KU DUKE
2 Point Attempt 53.9% 43.1%
3 Point Attempt 19.5% 30.1%
Player Fouled 19.5% 18.3%
Turnover 14.5% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken KU DUKE
Shot Blocked 4.7% 8.3%
Offensive Rebound 23.9% 26.3%