NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring KU GONZ
Points 73.1 76.6
Total Points   149.7
Points From 2-Pointers 42.9 41.4
Points From 3-Pointers 18.2 22.5
Points From Free Throws 12.0 12.7
Shooting KU GONZ
Field Goals Made 27.5 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 61.6 61.8
Field Goal % 44.7% 45.6%
2 Pointers Made 21.5 20.7
2 Pointers Attempted 43.9 41.5
2 Point Shooting % 48.9% 49.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 17.7 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 37.0%
Free Throws Made 12.0 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 17.1
Free Throw % 71.4% 74.4%
Ball Control KU GONZ
Rebounds 35.7 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.2 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 9.7
Turnovers 9.1 8.9
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.0
Steals 5.3 5.7
Fouls 12.7 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Kansas

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats KU GONZ
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.8 72.2
% of Possessions with KU GONZ
2 Point Attempt 53.5% 50.5%
3 Point Attempt 21.6% 24.7%
Player Fouled 18.7% 17.8%
Turnover 12.7% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken KU GONZ
Shot Blocked 4.9% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.8% 26.9%