NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring KU OKST
Points 78.7 66.6
Total Points   145.3
Points From 2-Pointers 51.4 26.5
Points From 3-Pointers 15.9 27.3
Points From Free Throws 11.4 12.8
Shooting KU OKST
Field Goals Made 31.0 22.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.3 56.8
Field Goal % 52.3% 39.3%
2 Pointers Made 25.7 13.2
2 Pointers Attempted 43.7 29.8
2 Point Shooting % 58.7% 44.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 15.5 27.0
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 33.7%
Free Throws Made 11.4 12.8
Free Throws Attempted 16.0 18.0
Free Throw % 71.4% 71.2%
Ball Control KU OKST
Rebounds 36.9 31.0
Rebounds - Defensive 29.1 23.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 8.0
Turnovers 9.7 11.5
Blocked Shots 3.7 2.0
Steals 7.9 5.6
Fouls 13.2 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Kansas

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats KU OKST
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.1 67.5
% of Possessions with KU OKST
2 Point Attempt 54.9% 37.0%
3 Point Attempt 19.5% 33.5%
Player Fouled 19.2% 18.7%
Turnover 13.7% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 11.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken KU OKST
Shot Blocked 3.6% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 21.5%