NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring KU ISU
Points 67.9 69.6
Total Points   137.6
Points From 2-Pointers 38.3 33.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.9 23.5
Points From Free Throws 12.7 13.0
Shooting KU ISU
Field Goals Made 24.8 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 52.5 59.6
Field Goal % 47.2% 40.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 33.9 38.4
2 Point Shooting % 56.5% 43.1%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 18.7 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 30.2% 37.0%
Free Throws Made 12.7 13.0
Free Throws Attempted 17.8 18.4
Free Throw % 71.4% 70.8%
Ball Control KU ISU
Rebounds 36.5 32.1
Rebounds - Defensive 28.4 22.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 9.6
Turnovers 14.1 9.0
Blocked Shots 3.6 2.6
Steals 5.9 8.7
Fouls 14.0 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Kansas

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats KU ISU
Total Possessions 70.0
Effective Scoring Chances 63.9 70.5
% of Possessions with KU ISU
2 Point Attempt 42.8% 47.5%
3 Point Attempt 23.6% 26.1%
Player Fouled 20.1% 20.0%
Turnover 20.2% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 12.5% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken KU ISU
Shot Blocked 4.4% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 26.4% 25.2%