NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring KU TEX
Points 71.7 71.1
Total Points   142.9
Points From 2-Pointers 43.1 34.3
Points From 3-Pointers 15.1 24.1
Points From Free Throws 13.6 12.8
Shooting KU TEX
Field Goals Made 26.6 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 56.9 59.9
Field Goal % 46.7% 42.1%
2 Pointers Made 21.5 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 42.1 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 51.1% 45.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 14.8 22.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 13.6 12.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 16.7
Free Throw % 71.4% 76.5%
Ball Control KU TEX
Rebounds 36.1 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 28.0 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 8.6
Turnovers 10.8 9.8
Blocked Shots 3.5 3.1
Steals 5.8 6.1
Fouls 12.9 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Kansas

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats KU TEX
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 68.4 69.8
% of Possessions with KU TEX
2 Point Attempt 52.4% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 18.3% 27.6%
Player Fouled 20.5% 18.2%
Turnover 15.2% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken KU TEX
Shot Blocked 5.3% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.6% 23.5%