NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring KU SJU
Points 73.2 73.2
Total Points   146.5
Points From 2-Pointers 42.7 35.7
Points From 3-Pointers 15.9 23.5
Points From Free Throws 14.6 13.9
Shooting KU SJU
Field Goals Made 26.7 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 62.7
Field Goal % 45.8% 41.0%
2 Pointers Made 21.4 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 43.0 40.0
2 Point Shooting % 49.7% 44.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 15.3 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.7% 34.5%
Free Throws Made 14.6 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.4 18.8
Free Throw % 71.4% 74.2%
Ball Control KU SJU
Rebounds 36.5 37.7
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 12.2
Turnovers 10.7 9.6
Blocked Shots 2.8 4.3
Steals 6.4 5.8
Fouls 12.9 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Kansas

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats KU SJU
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 70.3 74.6
% of Possessions with KU SJU
2 Point Attempt 51.9% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 18.5% 26.7%
Player Fouled 21.4% 17.9%
Turnover 14.9% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken KU SJU
Shot Blocked 6.9% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 26.2% 30.8%