NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring KU MSU
Points 68.6 68.9
Total Points   137.5
Points From 2-Pointers 39.1 33.4
Points From 3-Pointers 17.6 23.4
Points From Free Throws 11.9 12.1
Shooting KU MSU
Field Goals Made 25.4 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 55.7 59.8
Field Goal % 45.6% 41.0%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 37.6 39.1
2 Point Shooting % 52.0% 42.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 18.2 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 37.7%
Free Throws Made 11.9 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 16.7
Free Throw % 71.4% 72.5%
Ball Control KU MSU
Rebounds 35.6 34.9
Rebounds - Defensive 28.1 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 9.5
Turnovers 10.9 9.0
Blocked Shots 3.5 2.9
Steals 5.2 6.4
Fouls 13.3 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Kansas

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats KU MSU
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 65.9 69.8
% of Possessions with KU MSU
2 Point Attempt 48.2% 48.7%
3 Point Attempt 23.3% 25.8%
Player Fouled 19.8% 19.2%
Turnover 15.7% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken KU MSU
Shot Blocked 4.9% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 22.8% 25.3%