NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring KU MIZZ
Points 78.9 66.9
Total Points   145.8
Points From 2-Pointers 42.7 29.0
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 24.1
Points From Free Throws 17.4 13.8
Shooting KU MIZZ
Field Goals Made 27.6 22.5
Field Goals Attempted 55.6 57.6
Field Goal % 49.7% 39.1%
2 Pointers Made 21.4 14.5
2 Pointers Attempted 37.8 32.8
2 Point Shooting % 56.6% 44.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 17.8 24.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 32.4%
Free Throws Made 17.4 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 24.4 17.5
Free Throw % 71.4% 78.9%
Ball Control KU MIZZ
Rebounds 39.3 29.5
Rebounds - Defensive 29.1 21.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 7.8
Turnovers 10.9 10.8
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.4
Steals 6.3 6.6
Fouls 14.0 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: Missouri

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats KU MIZZ
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 68.2
% of Possessions with KU MIZZ
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 40.9%
3 Point Attempt 21.5% 30.9%
Player Fouled 23.6% 19.7%
Turnover 15.3% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken KU MIZZ
Shot Blocked 5.9% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 31.8% 21.0%