NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VMI MER
Points 65.3 80.8
Total Points   146.0
Points From 2-Pointers 36.5 47.6
Points From 3-Pointers 15.6 20.7
Points From Free Throws 13.1 12.4
Shooting VMI MER
Field Goals Made 23.5 30.7
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 64.3
Field Goal % 41.0% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 23.8
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 45.8
2 Point Shooting % 46.2% 52.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 17.8 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 29.3% 37.4%
Free Throws Made 13.1 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.7 18.3
Free Throw % 70.4% 67.9%
Ball Control VMI MER
Rebounds 34.3 39.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 11.1
Turnovers 13.9 9.5
Blocked Shots 2.1 3.8
Steals 4.9 8.2
Fouls 13.0 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: VMI

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VMI MER
Total Possessions 74.2
Effective Scoring Chances 68.8 75.8
% of Possessions with VMI MER
2 Point Attempt 47.0% 53.2%
3 Point Attempt 21.1% 21.4%
Player Fouled 21.0% 17.6%
Turnover 18.7% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 11.1% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken VMI MER
Shot Blocked 5.9% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 23.0% 30.0%