NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VMI PSU
Points 59.3 88.0
Total Points   147.3
Points From 2-Pointers 34.5 44.1
Points From 3-Pointers 13.3 25.0
Points From Free Throws 11.5 18.9
Shooting VMI PSU
Field Goals Made 21.7 30.4
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 61.3
Field Goal % 38.8% 49.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 22.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.5 38.3
2 Point Shooting % 44.9% 57.5%
3 Pointers Made 4.4 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 17.5 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 25.3% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 11.5 18.9
Free Throws Attempted 16.3 25.2
Free Throw % 70.4% 74.9%
Ball Control VMI PSU
Rebounds 32.8 38.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 28.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 9.7
Turnovers 18.0 9.2
Blocked Shots 1.7 4.2
Steals 4.5 10.8
Fouls 16.8 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Penn St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VMI PSU
Total Possessions 76.4
Effective Scoring Chances 66.2 76.9
% of Possessions with VMI PSU
2 Point Attempt 44.8% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 20.3% 26.4%
Player Fouled 18.5% 22.0%
Turnover 23.6% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 14.1% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken VMI PSU
Shot Blocked 6.9% 3.1%
Offensive Rebound 21.3% 27.8%