NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VMI ARST
Points 68.1 89.9
Total Points   158.0
Points From 2-Pointers 40.9 45.1
Points From 3-Pointers 15.6 29.1
Points From Free Throws 11.6 15.7
Shooting VMI ARST
Field Goals Made 25.7 32.3
Field Goals Attempted 62.5 67.5
Field Goal % 41.0% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.4 22.6
2 Pointers Attempted 45.8 40.4
2 Point Shooting % 44.7% 55.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 16.7 27.1
3 Point Shooting % 31.1% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 11.6 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 16.5 22.4
Free Throw % 70.4% 70.2%
Ball Control VMI ARST
Rebounds 33.2 44.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 31.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 13.8
Turnovers 12.1 8.4
Blocked Shots 2.6 5.1
Steals 4.5 7.1
Fouls 14.1 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: VMI

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VMI ARST
Total Possessions 76.0
Effective Scoring Chances 71.9 81.4
% of Possessions with VMI ARST
2 Point Attempt 53.2% 44.4%
3 Point Attempt 19.5% 29.9%
Player Fouled 18.5% 18.5%
Turnover 16.0% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken VMI ARST
Shot Blocked 7.6% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 20.6% 35.4%