NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BELL DUKE
Points 60.5 88.1
Total Points   148.6
Points From 2-Pointers 34.0 41.4
Points From 3-Pointers 19.0 30.1
Points From Free Throws 7.5 16.7
Shooting BELL DUKE
Field Goals Made 23.3 30.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.2 56.9
Field Goal % 40.1% 54.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 20.7
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 32.1
2 Point Shooting % 45.6% 64.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 10.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 30.4% 40.5%
Free Throws Made 7.5 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 9.9 23.4
Free Throw % 75.6% 71.5%
Ball Control BELL DUKE
Rebounds 25.4 40.4
Rebounds - Defensive 19.8 30.1
Rebounds - Offensive 5.6 10.3
Turnovers 9.9 7.1
Blocked Shots 2.0 3.4
Steals 3.7 5.2
Fouls 14.7 11.2

Playing Style Advantage: Bellarmine

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BELL DUKE
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 63.7 71.1
% of Possessions with BELL DUKE
2 Point Attempt 49.9% 40.7%
3 Point Attempt 27.8% 31.3%
Player Fouled 16.5% 21.7%
Turnover 14.5% 10.4%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken BELL DUKE
Shot Blocked 6.0% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 15.8% 34.3%