NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCF HOU
Points 57.6 72.0
Total Points   129.6
Points From 2-Pointers 23.5 31.6
Points From 3-Pointers 17.0 23.5
Points From Free Throws 17.1 16.8
Shooting UCF HOU
Field Goals Made 17.4 23.7
Field Goals Attempted 49.8 58.0
Field Goal % 35.0% 40.8%
2 Pointers Made 11.7 15.8
2 Pointers Attempted 30.4 35.5
2 Point Shooting % 38.6% 44.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 29.3% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 17.1 16.8
Free Throws Attempted 24.9 23.3
Free Throw % 68.6% 71.9%
Ball Control UCF HOU
Rebounds 36.5 37.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 12.5
Turnovers 14.1 8.6
Blocked Shots 3.5 5.1
Steals 5.3 8.2
Fouls 15.8 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCF HOU
Total Possessions 68.3
Effective Scoring Chances 65.3 72.2
% of Possessions with UCF HOU
2 Point Attempt 37.4% 43.2%
3 Point Attempt 23.7% 27.3%
Player Fouled 24.8% 23.2%
Turnover 20.7% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 12.0% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCF HOU
Shot Blocked 9.0% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 30.6% 33.1%