NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCF TLSA
Points 75.0 63.4
Total Points   138.5
Points From 2-Pointers 36.0 25.1
Points From 3-Pointers 21.1 18.5
Points From Free Throws 17.9 19.8
Shooting UCF TLSA
Field Goals Made 25.1 18.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 48.6
Field Goal % 43.1% 38.5%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 12.5
2 Pointers Attempted 36.7 28.0
2 Point Shooting % 49.0% 44.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 21.4 20.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.9% 30.0%
Free Throws Made 17.9 19.8
Free Throws Attempted 26.1 27.0
Free Throw % 68.6% 73.6%
Ball Control UCF TLSA
Rebounds 40.5 31.2
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.9 6.2
Turnovers 11.1 14.5
Blocked Shots 3.7 2.3
Steals 8.6 6.2
Fouls 18.6 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: Tulsa

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCF TLSA
Total Possessions 73.0
Effective Scoring Chances 74.8 64.7
% of Possessions with UCF TLSA
2 Point Attempt 42.3% 34.7%
3 Point Attempt 24.7% 25.5%
Player Fouled 23.0% 25.5%
Turnover 15.1% 19.9%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 11.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCF TLSA
Shot Blocked 4.8% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 34.0% 18.3%