NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCF ECU
Points 72.9 61.4
Total Points   134.3
Points From 2-Pointers 35.0 26.8
Points From 3-Pointers 22.7 18.5
Points From Free Throws 15.2 16.1
Shooting UCF ECU
Field Goals Made 25.1 19.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 52.8
Field Goal % 44.8% 37.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 13.4
2 Pointers Attempted 33.1 32.8
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 40.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.8 20.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 30.9%
Free Throws Made 15.2 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 22.1 23.5
Free Throw % 68.6% 68.6%
Ball Control UCF ECU
Rebounds 40.0 31.8
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 22.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.4 9.4
Turnovers 11.0 11.7
Blocked Shots 5.2 2.4
Steals 7.1 6.4
Fouls 15.7 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: UCF

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCF ECU
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.3 66.6
% of Possessions with UCF ECU
2 Point Attempt 40.2% 40.8%
3 Point Attempt 27.7% 24.9%
Player Fouled 21.7% 22.8%
Turnover 16.0% 16.9%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 10.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCF ECU
Shot Blocked 4.8% 9.4%
Offensive Rebound 35.7% 25.4%