NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FDU SFPA
Points 73.2 71.0
Total Points   144.2
Points From 2-Pointers 34.8 36.6
Points From 3-Pointers 22.0 22.6
Points From Free Throws 16.4 11.8
Shooting FDU SFPA
Field Goals Made 24.7 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 57.6 57.3
Field Goal % 43.0% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 18.3
2 Pointers Attempted 35.5 36.6
2 Point Shooting % 48.9% 50.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 22.0 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 16.4 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 23.6 19.6
Free Throw % 69.4% 60.1%
Ball Control FDU SFPA
Rebounds 34.2 38.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 11.8
Turnovers 10.3 13.6
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.6
Steals 7.1 5.2
Fouls 15.5 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: St Fran (PA)

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FDU SFPA
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 71.8 70.2
% of Possessions with FDU SFPA
2 Point Attempt 42.5% 43.0%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 24.4%
Player Fouled 23.7% 21.5%
Turnover 14.2% 18.9%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken FDU SFPA
Shot Blocked 6.4% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 32.9%