NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MERC STONE
Points 64.4 55.6
Total Points   120.0
Points From 2-Pointers 40.3 28.1
Points From 3-Pointers 15.5 16.0
Points From Free Throws 8.6 11.6
Shooting MERC STONE
Field Goals Made 25.3 19.4
Field Goals Attempted 60.3 52.5
Field Goal % 42.0% 36.9%
2 Pointers Made 20.1 14.0
2 Pointers Attempted 44.3 33.7
2 Point Shooting % 45.5% 41.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 16.0 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 28.4%
Free Throws Made 8.6 11.6
Free Throws Attempted 11.6 16.5
Free Throw % 74.4% 69.9%
Ball Control MERC STONE
Rebounds 32.9 38.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 28.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 10.1
Turnovers 6.5 13.3
Blocked Shots 6.1 2.7
Steals 7.9 3.3
Fouls 13.2 11.9

Playing Style Advantage: Stonehill

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MERC STONE
Total Possessions 65.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 62.4
% of Possessions with MERC STONE
2 Point Attempt 59.4% 43.2%
3 Point Attempt 21.5% 24.0%
Player Fouled 18.1% 20.1%
Turnover 9.9% 20.3%
Opponent Steal 5.1% 12.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MERC STONE
Shot Blocked 5.3% 10.3%
Offensive Rebound 21.6% 28.7%