NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MERC STONE
Points 66.9 68.9
Total Points   135.9
Points From 2-Pointers 34.1 29.8
Points From 3-Pointers 18.9 25.5
Points From Free Throws 14.0 13.6
Shooting MERC STONE
Field Goals Made 23.3 23.4
Field Goals Attempted 52.9 49.5
Field Goal % 44.1% 47.3%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 14.9
2 Pointers Attempted 36.6 26.6
2 Point Shooting % 46.5% 56.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 16.3 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 38.6% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 14.0 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 17.2 19.1
Free Throw % 81.3% 71.4%
Ball Control MERC STONE
Rebounds 27.4 33.2
Rebounds - Defensive 20.9 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 6.5 8.4
Turnovers 8.3 11.8
Blocked Shots 2.0 2.1
Steals 5.9 4.4
Fouls 14.4 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Stonehill

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MERC STONE
Total Possessions 65.1
Effective Scoring Chances 63.3 61.8
% of Possessions with MERC STONE
2 Point Attempt 50.6% 35.8%
3 Point Attempt 22.5% 30.8%
Player Fouled 24.1% 22.1%
Turnover 12.7% 18.1%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MERC STONE
Shot Blocked 4.2% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 20.7% 28.7%