NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CALBA CAL
Points 66.7 75.4
Total Points   142.2
Points From 2-Pointers 31.2 43.2
Points From 3-Pointers 21.1 19.8
Points From Free Throws 14.4 12.4
Shooting CALBA CAL
Field Goals Made 22.6 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 59.2 60.1
Field Goal % 38.2% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.6 21.6
2 Pointers Attempted 37.6 41.9
2 Point Shooting % 41.4% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.6 18.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 14.4 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 16.9
Free Throw % 69.6% 73.2%
Ball Control CALBA CAL
Rebounds 36.9 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 29.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 8.1
Turnovers 9.1 8.0
Blocked Shots 2.2 3.4
Steals 3.0 4.8
Fouls 14.3 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Baptist

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CALBA CAL
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 71.8 70.3
% of Possessions with CALBA CAL
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 52.8%
3 Point Attempt 26.3% 23.0%
Player Fouled 21.1% 20.4%
Turnover 13.0% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 4.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken CALBA CAL
Shot Blocked 5.8% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 23.5%