NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CALBA TEX
Points 59.8 77.4
Total Points   137.2
Points From 2-Pointers 28.7 49.0
Points From 3-Pointers 17.4 16.2
Points From Free Throws 13.7 12.3
Shooting CALBA TEX
Field Goals Made 20.1 29.9
Field Goals Attempted 55.7 57.4
Field Goal % 36.1% 52.0%
2 Pointers Made 14.3 24.5
2 Pointers Attempted 37.6 43.1
2 Point Shooting % 38.1% 56.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 18.1 14.3
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 37.7%
Free Throws Made 13.7 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 19.7 16.1
Free Throw % 69.6% 76.5%
Ball Control CALBA TEX
Rebounds 33.0 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 22.4 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 7.2
Turnovers 10.9 7.9
Blocked Shots 2.1 5.0
Steals 3.1 5.4
Fouls 14.3 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Baptist

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CALBA TEX
Total Possessions 67.8
Effective Scoring Chances 67.5 67.1
% of Possessions with CALBA TEX
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 56.9%
3 Point Attempt 22.5% 18.9%
Player Fouled 22.1% 21.0%
Turnover 16.1% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 4.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken CALBA TEX
Shot Blocked 8.8% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 27.5% 24.2%