NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CALBA UTA
Points 67.0 75.5
Total Points   142.5
Points From 2-Pointers 29.1 40.6
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 20.3
Points From Free Throws 17.8 14.5
Shooting CALBA UTA
Field Goals Made 21.3 27.1
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 56.1
Field Goal % 38.6% 48.3%
2 Pointers Made 14.6 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 34.8 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 41.8% 53.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 36.7%
Free Throws Made 17.8 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 25.5 19.7
Free Throw % 69.6% 73.6%
Ball Control CALBA UTA
Rebounds 34.9 35.1
Rebounds - Defensive 23.6 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 8.4
Turnovers 11.4 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.4 4.2
Steals 3.8 5.5
Fouls 16.7 18.7

Playing Style Advantage: TX-Arlington

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CALBA UTA
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 70.7 68.3
% of Possessions with CALBA UTA
2 Point Attempt 41.6% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 24.2% 23.0%
Player Fouled 26.4% 23.5%
Turnover 16.0% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken CALBA UTA
Shot Blocked 7.5% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 29.6% 26.2%