NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CALBA UTA
Points 75.9 72.7
Total Points   148.6
Points From 2-Pointers 39.2 37.1
Points From 3-Pointers 23.6 22.9
Points From Free Throws 13.1 12.7
Shooting CALBA UTA
Field Goals Made 27.5 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 63.7 57.2
Field Goal % 43.1% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 18.5
2 Pointers Attempted 41.2 35.0
2 Point Shooting % 47.6% 52.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.5 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 13.1 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 20.2
Free Throw % 76.2% 62.7%
Ball Control CALBA UTA
Rebounds 38.5 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 13.6 10.5
Turnovers 9.2 11.0
Blocked Shots 2.4 2.3
Steals 6.4 4.2
Fouls 15.8 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Baptist

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CALBA UTA
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 74.9 70.0
% of Possessions with CALBA UTA
2 Point Attempt 48.5% 42.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 27.0%
Player Fouled 19.4% 22.4%
Turnover 13.1% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken CALBA UTA
Shot Blocked 4.2% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 35.5% 29.8%