NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CALBA USC
Points 62.9 76.4
Total Points   139.2
Points From 2-Pointers 25.5 46.4
Points From 3-Pointers 23.6 17.5
Points From Free Throws 13.8 12.4
Shooting CALBA USC
Field Goals Made 20.6 29.0
Field Goals Attempted 58.4 57.1
Field Goal % 35.2% 50.9%
2 Pointers Made 12.7 23.2
2 Pointers Attempted 35.1 42.0
2 Point Shooting % 36.3% 55.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.3 15.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 38.8%
Free Throws Made 13.8 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 17.9
Free Throw % 69.6% 69.5%
Ball Control CALBA USC
Rebounds 35.4 36.2
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 7.5
Turnovers 11.4 9.2
Blocked Shots 2.1 6.2
Steals 3.7 6.1
Fouls 15.1 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Baptist

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CALBA USC
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 68.0
% of Possessions with CALBA USC
2 Point Attempt 41.8% 53.8%
3 Point Attempt 27.8% 19.3%
Player Fouled 21.0% 21.7%
Turnover 16.3% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken CALBA USC
Shot Blocked 11.0% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 29.1% 24.1%